Pushback may be a strategy for impressing upon China that other states will not accept its unilateral interpretations of the law. Meanwhile, China’s assertiveness and the burgeoning U.S.-led pushback against it raises the risk of escalation at sea and in the air.
The reality, however, is that China’s determination to enforce its sweeping claims over most of the sea, along with the resulting boost to nationalist sentiment in littoral states and an abiding lack of trust among claimants, makes the necessary compromises particularly complex. In theory, this fact should not preclude provisional cooperative arrangements among claimants on mechanisms to provide order in the South China Sea, from conducting scientific research to jointly protecting the environment and apportioning its resources. There is no near-term prospect of resolution for the sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea.
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and its allies, unsettled by China’s growing power and assertive behaviour, have reacted by advancing the idea of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific, largely pitched to South East Asia as an alternative to China’s dominance. Under the rubric of “community of common destiny”, and aided by projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, China is attempting to develop a regional order in which neighbouring countries will defer to Beijing in exchange for benevolence. The material changes wrought by China are accompanied by novel legal arguments, which point to China’s ambition to shape the international order along its periphery. For years, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam have been unable to prospect for hydrocarbons in waters they claim without risking harassment by Chinese vessels. China’s actions impinge on the rights of other claimants to maritime entitlements in their claimed exclusive economic zones. These islands have in turn facilitated the pervasive maritime presence of the People’s Liberation Army Navy, the Chinese Coast Guard and China’s maritime militia. China doubled down on its claims, including by changing the physical environment in a material way, most visibly through the construction and militarisation of seven artificial islands in the Spratly Islands. Beijing, which had refused to participate in the legal proceedings, rejected the ruling. In 2016, an ad hoc tribunal constituted under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) invalidated China’s expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea, in a case brought by the Philippines. share an obligation to work with each other and smaller claimant states to develop a regional order that can absorb friction and avoid conflict. The competition carries implications for the rights of littoral states, international law and conflict risks.
These paradigms clash in the South China Sea, where some observers see a new cold war that may turn hot. aims to preserve the post-World War II order that it believes has underpinned relative peace and prosperity in Asia while also serving its own interests. Thus, China seeks influence commensurate with its growing economic and military might, starting with a regional order that reflects its preferences. This contest is commonly, if simplistically, cast as a rising China challenging the U.S.-led “rules-based international order”, driven by an epochal power transition. Intensifying competition between China and the United States increasingly overshadows the intractable sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea. The parties should reduce friction through high-level dialogue, agree on incident management mechanisms and clarify red lines. should ratify and China comply with the Law of the Sea convention. and China should manage conflict risks through the development of a law-based regional order that both support. How these tensions are managed matters for international law, maritime order and conflict risks. Beijing objects to what it sees as containment obstructing its rightful international role. perceptions of a revisionist challenge to what it calls the “rules-based international order”.
Why does it matter? China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea feeds U.S. China’s growing capacity and determination to protect its interests has alarmed its neighbours and spurred a U.S.-led international effort to push back against Beijing’s interpretations of international law. What’s new? Strategic competition between China and the United States increasingly overshadows the South China Sea’s seemingly intractable multiparty sovereignty disputes.
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